Figures (Statistics) Lie and Liars Figure Redux
The jobs report that came out yesterday claimed employers added a 120,000 jobs in March — barely enough to keep pace with the growth in population. The figure was lower than even the most pessimistic guess among dozens of “experts” polled by Bloomberg. The “recovery” yarn they’ve been spinning took a turn for the dramatic.
More telling, all but 30,000 of those jobs were, for lack of a better word, imaginary or as I categorize it BS! Ninty thousand jobs were added as a result of the “birth-death model” calculation used by the BLS.
The “birth-death model” is a statistical assumption composed of two parts:
a) The BLS assumes that if a business closes down, another will open in its place. So they don’t count businesses that close.
b) An estimate of the number of businesses “born” and “died” over the past five years.
If you’ve got free time on your hands and want to waste some of it… try going to this site and figure out how BLS liars actually calculate these numbers.
In the meantime, Let me give you the quick and dirty: The U-3 unemployment rate — the one most often cited by the press — fell to 8.2%… but only because more people dropped out of the work force.
Tracking a better number: The percentage of the working population in the labor force fell to 63.8%. The percentage of the overall population that has a job fell to 58.5%.
Both figures remain mired near lows last seen as when we were told it was “morning in America” by Ronald Reagan and that was over 30 years ago.
The real number for those that either stopped looking or were what they termed under employed is closer to 22%!